An understanding of the decision-making process provides the pilot with a foundation for developing ADM and SRM skills. While some situations, such as engine failure, require an immediate pilot response using established procedures, there is usually time during a flight to analyze any changes that occur, gather information, and assess risk before reaching a decision.

Risk management and risk intervention are decision-making processes designed to systematically identify hazards, assess the degree of risk, and determine the best course of action. These processes involve the identification of hazards, followed by assessments of the risks, analysis of the controls, making control decisions, using the controls, and monitoring the results. Several models of a structured framework for problem-solving and decision-making—the 5P, the 3P (with CARE and TEAM), the OODA, and the DECIDE models—provide assistance in organizing the decision process. All these models have been identified as helpful to the single pilot in organizing critical decisions.

17.5.1 SRM and the 5P Check #

SRM is about how to gather information, analyze it, and make decisions.

There is no one right answer in ADM; rather, each pilot is expected to analyze each situation in light of experience level, personal minimums, and current physical and mental readiness level, and make his or her own decision. One practical application is called the “Five Ps (5 Ps).” [Figure 17-7] The 5 Ps consist of “the Plan, the Plane, the Pilot, the Passengers, and the Programming.” The 5 Ps are used to evaluate the pilot’s current situation at key decision points during the flight—preflight, pretakeoff, hourly or at the midpoint of the flight, pre-descent, and just prior to the final approach fix (or for VFR operations, just prior to entering the traffic pattern).

The 5P concept relies on the pilot to adopt a “scheduled” review of the critical variables at points in the flight where decisions are most likely to be effective. The easiest point to cancel a flight due to bad weather is before the pilot and passengers walk out the door; the second easiest point is just prior to takeoff.

The third place to review the 5 Ps is at the midpoint of the flight (if the flight is longer than 2 hours, the 5P check should be conducted hourly).

The last two decision points are just prior to descent into the terminal area and just prior to the final approach fix (or, if VFR, just prior to entering the traffic pattern).

17.5.2 The Plan #

The “Plan” can also be called the mission or the task. It contains the basic elements of cross-country planning: weather, route, fuel, publications currency, etc. The “Plan” should be reviewed and updated several times during the course of the flight. A delayed takeoff due to maintenance, fast-moving weather, and a short-notice TFR may all radically alter the plan. Weather is a huge part of any plan; the addition of datalink weather information gives the advanced avionics pilot a real advantage in inclement weather, but only if the pilot is trained to retrieve and evaluate the weather in real time without sacrificing situational awareness.

17.5.3 The Plane #

The “plane” consists of the usual array of mechanical and cosmetic issues that every aircraft pilot, owner, or operator can identify. With the advent of advanced avionics, the “plane” has expanded to include database currency, automation status, and emergency backup systems. Much has been written about single-pilot IFR flight both with and without an autopilot; while this is a personal decision, low IFR in a non-autopilot equipped aircraft may depend on pilot proficiency, currency, and fatigue.

17.5.4 The Pilot #

Flying, especially when used for business transportation, can expose the pilot to high-altitude flying, long distance and endurance, and more challenging weather. The traditional “IMSAFE” checklist is a good start.

The combination of late night, pilot fatigue, and the effects of sustained flight above 5,000 feet may cause pilots to become less discerning, less critical of information, less decisive, and more compliant and accepting. The 5P process helps a pilot recognize the physiological situation before takeoff and continues to update personal conditions as the flight progresses.

17.5.5 The Passengers #

One of the key differences between CRM and SRM is the way passengers interact with the pilot.

The desire of the passengers to make airline connections or important business meetings easily enters into the pilot’s decision-making loop; done in a healthy and open way, this can be a positive factor. A pilot employing SRM should ensure the passengers are involved in the decision-making and given tasks and duties to keep them busy and involved.

Pilots also need to understand that non-pilots may not understand the level of risk involved in the flight. If, upon a factual description of the risks present, the passengers decide to buy an airline ticket or rent a car, then a good decision has generally been made. This discussion also removes self-induced pressure from the pilot.

17.5.6 The Programming #

The electronic instrument displays, GPS, and autopilot reduce pilot workload and increase pilot situational awareness. While programming and operation of these devices are fairly simple, they tend to capture the pilot’s attention and hold it for long periods of time. To avoid this, the pilot should plan in advance when and where the programming for approaches, route changes, and airport information gathering should be accomplished—as well as times it should not. Since formats are not standardized, simply moving from one manufacturer’s equipment to another should give the pilot pause and require more conservative planning and decisions. Under SRM and the 5 Ps, even the decision to make no changes to the current plan is made through a careful consideration of all the risk factors present.

17.5.7 Perceive, Process, Perform (3P) #

The Perceive, Process, Perform (3P) model for ADM offers a simple, practical, and systematic approach that can be used during all phases of flight. To use it, the pilot will: Perceive the given set of circumstances for a flight; Process by evaluating their impact on flight safety; and Perform by implementing the best course of action.

In the first step, the goal is to develop situational awareness by perceiving hazards—present events, objects, or circumstances that could contribute to an undesired future event—and systematically identifying and listing hazards associated with all aspects of the flight: pilot, aircraft, environment, and external pressures.

In the second step, the goal is to process this information to determine whether the identified hazards constitute risk, which is the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated; the degree of risk can be measured in terms of exposure, severity, and probability.

In the third step, the goal is to perform by taking action to eliminate hazards or mitigate risk, and then continuously evaluate the outcome. The decision-making process is a continuous loop of perceiving, processing, and performing.

17.5.8 Perceive, Process, Perform with CARE and TEAM #

The six steps of risk management can be combined into an easy-to-remember 3P model for practical risk management: Perceive, Process, Perform with the CARE and TEAM models. [Figures 17-8 and 17-9] Pilots can help perceive hazards by using the PAVE checklist (Pilot, Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures). They can process hazards by using the CARE checklist (Consequences, Alternatives, Reality, External factors). Finally, pilots can perform risk management by using the TEAM choice list (Transfer, Eliminate, Accept, or Mitigate).

17.5.9 Forming Good Safety Habits #

While the 3P model is similar to other methods, there are two good reasons to use it. First, the 3P model gives pilots a structured, efficient, and systematic way to identify hazards, assess risk, and implement effective risk controls. Second, practicing risk management needs to be as automatic in GA flying as basic aircraft control; as is true for other flying skills, risk management thinking habits are best developed through repetition and consistent adherence to specific procedures.

17.5.10 The OODA Loop #

The “OODA Loop” (Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action), developed by Colonel John Boyd, is now used as a standard description of decision-making cycles.

The Loop is an interlaced decision model which provides immediate feedback throughout the decision-making process. [Figure 17-10] The first node, Observe, reflects the need for situational awareness—a pilot must be aware of those things around him or her that may impact the flight. Orient, the second node, focuses the pilot’s attention on one or more discrepancies in the flight. The pilot then moves to Decide, making a positive determination about a specific action, and then Acts on that decision.

Once the loop has been completed, the pilot is once again in the Observe position, and the assessment of the resulting action is added to the previously perceived aspects of the flight.

17.5.11 The DECIDE Model #

Using the acronym “DECIDE,” the six-step DECIDE Model is a continuous loop process that provides the pilot with a logical way of making decisions. [Figure 17-11] DECIDE means to Detect, Estimate, Choose a course of action, Identify solutions, Do the necessary actions, and Evaluate the effects of the actions. (As an illustration, in one accident a multi-engine checkride, the pilot mis-identified which engine had been simulated as failed and feathered the operating engine; taking action without forethought can be just as dangerous as taking no action at all.)

17.5.12 Detect (the Problem) #

Problem detection is the first step in the decision-making process. It begins with recognizing that a change occurred or that an expected change did not occur. A problem is perceived first by the senses and then distinguished through insight and experience. One critical error made during the decision-making process is incorrectly detecting the problem.

17.5.13 Estimate (the Need To React) #

In many cases, overreaction and fixation excludes a safe outcome. For example, if the cabin door of a Mooney suddenly opened in flight on a clear sunny day, the perceived hazard is quickly assessed as minor; but the same open door on an IFR climb-out in IMC with turbulence and an amended clearance becomes a higher risk factor. The problem has not changed, but the perception of risk a pilot assigns it changes because of the multitude of ongoing tasks and the environment. Experience, discipline, awareness, and knowledge influence how a pilot ranks a problem.

17.5.14 Choose (a Course of Action) #

After the problem has been identified and its impact estimated, the pilot must determine the desirable outcome and choose a course of action.

17.5.15 Identify (Solutions) #

The pilot formulates a plan that will take him or her to the objective. Sometimes there may be only one course of action available. It is important for the pilot not to become fixated on the process to the exclusion of making a decision.

17.5.16 Do (the Necessary Actions) #

Once pathways to resolution are identified, the pilot selects the most suitable one for the situation and carries it out.

17.5.17 Evaluate (the Effect of the Action) #

Finally, after implementing a solution, evaluate the decision to see if it was correct. If the action taken does not provide the desired results, the process may have to be repeated.