Two defining elements of ADM are hazard and risk. Hazard is a real or perceived condition, event, or circumstance that a pilot encounters. When faced with a hazard, the pilot makes an assessment of that hazard based upon various factors and assigns a value to the potential impact of the hazard, which qualifies the pilot’s assessment of the hazard—risk.
Therefore, risk is an assessment of the single or cumulative hazard facing a pilot; however, different pilots see hazards differently. For example, a pilot discovers a small, blunt nick in the leading edge at the middle of the aircraft’s prop. The nick is the hazard (a present condition); the risk is prop fracture if the engine is operated with damage to a prop blade. A seasoned pilot may see the nick as low risk, while an inexperienced pilot may see it as high risk and cancel the flight. Elements or factors affecting individuals are different and profoundly impact decision-making—these are called human factors and can transcend education, experience, health, physiological aspects, etc. In another example, the pilot of a Beechcraft King Air equipped with deicing and anti-icing deliberately flew into moderate to severe icing conditions because past experience prompted the action; he had successfully flown into these conditions repeatedly, but this time the icing was forecast from the surface rather than 2,000 feet above it. Since he was in a hurry and failed to factor in the difference, he assigned a low risk to the hazard and took a chance—he and the passengers died from a poor risk assessment of the situation.
17.3.1 Hazardous Attitudes and Antidotes #
Being fit to fly depends on more than just a pilot’s physical condition and recent experience. Attitude is a motivational predisposition to respond to people, situations, or events in a given manner. Studies have identified five hazardous attitudes that can interfere with the ability to make sound decisions and exercise authority properly: anti-authority, impulsivity, invulnerability, macho, and resignation. [Figure 17-3]
Hazardous attitudes contribute to poor pilot judgment but can be effectively counteracted by redirecting the hazardous attitude so that correct action can be taken. Recognition of hazardous thoughts is the first step toward neutralizing them: after recognizing a thought as hazardous, the pilot should label it as hazardous, then state the corresponding antidote. Antidotes should be memorized for each of the hazardous attitudes so they automatically come to mind when needed.
17.3.2 Risk #
During each flight, the single pilot makes many decisions under hazardous conditions. To fly safely, the pilot needs to assess the degree of risk and determine the best course of action to mitigate risk.
17.3.3 Assessing Risk #
For the single pilot, assessing risk is not as simple as it sounds. The pilot acts as his or her own quality control in making decisions. Most pilots are goal oriented, and when asked to accept a flight, there is a tendency to deny personal limitations while adding weight to issues not germane to the mission. The single pilot who has no other crew member for consultation must wrestle with the intangible factors that draw one into a hazardous position, and therefore has a greater vulnerability than a full crew.
Examining National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports and other accident research can help a pilot learn to assess risk more effectively. For example, the accident rate during night VFR decreases by nearly 50 percent once a pilot obtains 100 hours, and continues to decrease until the 1,000 hour level.
Several risk assessment models are available; the most basic tool is the risk matrix, which assesses two items: the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequence of that event. [Figure 17-4]
17.3.4 Likelihood of an Event #
Likelihood is taking a situation and determining the probability of its occurrence. It is rated as probable, occasional, remote, or improbable: probable (an event will occur several times); occasional (an event will probably occur sometime); remote (an event is unlikely to occur, but is possible); and improbable (an event is highly unlikely to occur).
17.3.5 Severity of an Event #
The next element is the severity or consequence of a pilot’s action(s). It can relate to injury and/or damage: catastrophic (results in fatalities, total loss); critical (severe injury, major damage); marginal (minor injury, minor damage); and negligible (less than minor injury, less than minor system damage).
Simply connecting the two factors indicates the level of risk; if the risk is high, the pilot must either not fly, or fly only after finding ways to mitigate, eliminate, or control the risk. A more comprehensive program can be tailored to a pilot’s flying, assessing health, fatigue, weather, capabilities, etc. [Figure 17-5]
17.3.6 Mitigating Risk #
Risk assessment is only part of the equation; after determining the level of risk, the pilot needs to mitigate the risk. For example, a pilot flying 50 miles in MVFR conditions has several ways to reduce risk: wait for the weather to improve to good VFR conditions; take a pilot who is certified as an IFR pilot; delay the flight; cancel the flight; or drive. One of the best ways single pilots can mitigate risk is to use the IMSAFE checklist to determine physical and mental readiness for flying: Illness (Am I sick?); Medication (Am I taking any medicines that might affect my judgment or make me drowsy?); Stress (Am I under psychological pressure from the job? Do I have money, health, or family problems?); Alcohol (Have I been drinking within 8 hours? Within 24 hours?); Fatigue (Am I tired and not adequately rested?); and Eating (Have I eaten enough of the proper foods to keep adequately nourished during the entire flight?).
17.3.7 The PAVE Checklist #
Another way to mitigate risk is to perceive hazards. By incorporating the PAVE checklist into preflight planning, the pilot divides the risks of flight into four categories: Pilot-in-command (PIC), Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures (PAVE), which form part of a pilot’s decision-making process.
With the PAVE checklist, pilots have a simple way to remember each category to examine for risk prior to each flight. Once a pilot identifies the risks of a flight, he or she needs to decide whether the risk or combination of risks can be managed safely; if not, make the decision to cancel the flight. One way a pilot can control the risks is to set personal minimums for items in each risk category—limits unique to that individual pilot’s current level of experience and proficiency.
One of the most important concepts that safe pilots understand is the difference between what is “legal” in terms of the regulations, and what is “smart” or “safe” in terms of pilot experience and proficiency.
17.3.8 P = Pilot in Command (PIC) #
The pilot is one of the risk factors in a flight. The pilot must ask, “Am I ready for this trip?” in terms of experience, recency, currency, physical and emotional condition. The IMSAFE checklist provides the answers.
17.3.9 A = Aircraft #
What limitations will the aircraft impose upon the trip? Ask: Is this the right aircraft for the flight? Am I familiar with and current in this aircraft? Is this aircraft equipped for the flight (instruments, lights, navigation and communication equipment)? Can this aircraft use the runways available for the trip with an adequate margin of safety? Can this aircraft carry the planned load? Can this aircraft operate at the altitudes needed? Does this aircraft have sufficient fuel capacity, with reserves, for the trip legs planned? Does the fuel quantity delivered match the fuel quantity ordered?
17.3.10 V = EnVironment #
Weather is a major environmental consideration. As pilots evaluate the weather for a particular flight, they should consider current ceiling and visibility (in mountainous terrain, consider higher minimums); the possibility that the weather may be different than forecast (have alternative plans and be ready to divert); the winds and crosswind component; strong winds aloft in mountainous terrain (which can cause severe turbulence and downdrafts); thunderstorms; and icing, current or forecast. Terrain evaluation is another important component—to avoid terrain and obstacles, especially at night or in low visibility, determine safe altitudes in advance using the altitudes shown on VFR and IFR charts and maximum elevation figures (MEFs). Airport: consider the lights available at the destination and alternate airports, glidepath guidance (VASI/PAPI or ILS), NOTAMs for closed runways, and shorter or obstructed fields. Airspace: if the trip is over remote areas, carry appropriate clothing, water, and survival gear; check the airspace and any temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) along the route. Nighttime flying requires special consideration—be prepared to fly IFR if losing visual reference to the horizon, ensure a safe emergency landing is possible, and preflight all aircraft lights, carrying at least two flashlights.
17.3.11 E = External Pressures #
External pressures are influences external to the flight that create a sense of pressure to complete a flight—often at the expense of safety. Factors include someone waiting at the airport for the flight’s arrival; a passenger the pilot does not want to disappoint; the desire to demonstrate pilot qualifications or to impress someone (probably the two most dangerous words in aviation are “Watch this!”); the desire to satisfy a specific personal goal (“get-home-itis,” “get-there-itis,” and “let’s-go-itis”); the pilot’s general goal-completion orientation; and emotional pressure associated with acknowledging that skill and experience levels may be lower than a pilot would like. Management of external pressure is the single most important key to risk management, because it is the one risk factor category that can cause a pilot to ignore all the other risk factors.
The use of personal standard operating procedures (SOPs) is one way to manage external pressures: allow time on a trip for an extra fuel stop or an unexpected landing because of weather; have alternate plans for a late arrival; for really important trips, plan to leave early enough that there would still be time to drive; advise those waiting at the destination that the arrival may be delayed; manage passengers’ expectations; and eliminate pressure to return home by carrying a small overnight kit on every flight.
The key to managing external pressure is to be ready for and accept delays. [Figure 17-6]
